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Old GilbertZ

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Is the luster off Blue Nile?
Quote this post and reply to it Post#1 @ 05-23-07 , 10:32 PM


I ran into an interesting site today called 10Q Detective. Most people who invest and unfortunately, most journalists covering finance stories, tend to read the annual report and listen to the conference calls without putting in much effort to study the details. Good financial analysts say the real stuff about how a company is doing are in the footnotes and the 10Q.

David Phillips has done some research into Blue Nile. The article is worth a read.

Blurb:
Quote:
Albeit unit volume and unit prices increased, gross profit as a percentage of net sales was 19.5% in the quarter ended April 1, down 90 basis points from the prior year. Management said the decrease in gross profit as a percentage of net sales was primarily due to retail price reductions in diamonds that were instituted midway through the quarter ended April 2, 2006 to optimize gross profit (euphemism for saying that price-cuts were initiated on some products to stimulate—otherwise—slugg ish sales?) In our view, higher diamond prices from suppliers adversely impacted gross margin, too.

SNIP

In its 10Q regulatory filing, Blue Nile commented that net sales and results of operations were still highly dependent on the demand for diamonds and diamond jewelry, particularly engagement rings. In fact, more than 90% of business is still in diamonds, 70 percent being in engagement rings. In order to increase net sales and expand its product offerings, the Company must attract new customers or expand returning customers’ product purchases in a cost-effective manner.

Blue Nile’s growth strategy is to communicate its ‘value proposition’ (offering certified diamonds at up to 40% off retail prices) to visitors of its online site. In the last two years, Blue Nile proved to have the highest online visibility of any jewelry retailer across paid and organic search listings. Management attributes this success to its continued web site innovations, including its interactive diamond search.

In our view, the online jewelry market is not as fragmented as when Blue Nile was first-to-market five years ago. Brick & mortar jewelers are narrowing the gap, investing more to increase search engine visibility. In addition, by building their own interactive resources, competitors are making it as easy for their customers to browse their websites as it is to walk through their doors.

SNIP

Although Tiffany & Co., home of the little blue box that sets womens’ hearts aflutter, does not offer diamond engagement rings for sale online, it now offers an interactive section that educates diamond buyers in the 4 C’s of diamond quality and the ability to schedule an in-store consultation. The 10Q Detective notes that products containing one or more diamonds of varying sizes accounted for only 46 percent of Tiffany & Co’s net sales in Fiscal 2006.

As Blue Nile looks to other drivers, such as silver jewelry and smaller ticket diamond jewelry in an effort to reach new customers, the Company will start bumping into formidable online competition from the likes of a Tiffany & Co or a Kay Jewelers.

To avoid maturation of paid-search and stay competitive in diamond search functionality, Blue Nile will have to pony up more advertising and marketing dollars, which will probably increase the cost of a new customer. [The Company does not currently release what it costs to convert a browser to a buyer.]

In addition, we believe that the build-out of online sites by stores with a national footprint—brick and mortar or direct merchandisers—will adversely impact future growth of repeat and referral revenue at Blue Nile. The budget-conscious consumer, for example, can now find an engaging ‘Design Your Own’ diamond service at national retailer Zales .com site.


This fellow is clearly quite astute. If you follow the market, he's worth the bookmark.

By contrast, Fool.com has been running several Blue Nile stories with a different take.

One more note, BN has now launched "Rare" fancy color diamonds for sale on their site. But if you look at the first page of their Fancy Color site you see that there are many sample photos... Hence the problem with virtual goods...


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Re: Is the luster off Blue Nile?
Quote this post and reply to it Post#2 @ 05-23-07 , 11:17 PM


Hmm... will have to poke about that 10Q Detective site - thanks for the link. Not much of an individual stock player right now (some ETFs, though).

Any casual opinions on precious metals right now Gil? I'm kicking around the idea of picking up some silver, mostly because of the strength of the Loonie at the moment (makes things a little cheaper). I'd be into palladium if it didn't move for such a premium over spot (Pd Maple Leafs are quite overpriced, and all new palladium up here is charged 6% GST. Gold and silver aren't taxed). Still might pick up a couple of ounces for fun if it drops back under $350 and the Loonie is still up.

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Re: Is the luster off Blue Nile?
Quote this post and reply to it Post#3 @ 05-24-07 , 02:18 AM


Sorry Gemeli, really don't have any opinions on precious metals...

BTW, I just saw that Lehman downgraded Nile...Eric Savitz @ Barrons is reporting that Amazon may be opening a standalone online diamond store...or even buying Blue Nile.

Edit: And more. Amazon sales up 100% for Jewelry.


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Re: Is the luster off Blue Nile?
Quote this post and reply to it Post#4 @ 05-24-07 , 08:03 PM


Quote:
Originally Posted by GilbertZ
One more note, BN has now launched "Rare" fancy color diamonds for sale on their site. But if you look at the first page of their Fancy Color site you see that there are many sample photos... Hence the problem with virtual goods...


trivia to this...I saw that The Jewelry Exchge just started new TV advertising offering colored diamonds.


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Re: Is the luster off Blue Nile?
Quote this post and reply to it Post#5 @ 05-24-07 , 09:26 PM


Gil;

Take a look at BN's Insider Stock Sales/Purchases over the past two years.

Very interesting. Why are the insiders selling their shares with not one purchase?

What does this say about their confidence in the future of their company?

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Re: Is the luster off Blue Nile?
Quote this post and reply to it Post#6 @ 05-25-07 , 01:59 AM


Quote:
Originally Posted by barry
Gil;

Take a look at BN's Insider Stock Sales/Purchases over the past two years.


I haven't looked at the data but I do remember reading that there was a fair bit of insider selling...

Having been on the other side of the fence, I do understand that insiders like to make liquid some of their equity while they can...but still, you don't usually see everyone dumping if they feel the upside is huge. There's usually more of a balance...

Edited to add:
FYI, Tiffany vp exercises options for 10,000 shares


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Re: Is the luster off Blue Nile?
Quote this post and reply to it Post#7 @ 05-29-07 , 05:36 PM


Blue Nile SVP exercises options


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